United States presidential election: the coronavirus crisis and anti-racism protests are probably tipping points

11/06/2020

shutterstock_566154895
FED

In particular, the negative Keys are the loss of seats in the House of Representatives after the mid-term elections, reflecting a downward political trend, the impeachment process against him, the economic recession of 2020 and the current wave of protests in the United States. Without the recession and the demonstrations, the Keys would have pointed to a victory. ln this sense, we can therefore deduce that current events probably represent tipping points for this year's presidential election in the United States.

Christophe Morel
[Christophe Morel, Chief Economiste]
Will the COVID-19 pandemic and the current demonstrations have any impact on the result of the presidential election in the United States? The answer is yes. These events can even be considered “Keys to the White House” according to the highly systematic model developed by Allan Lichtman, professor of history at American University in Washington. In the early 80s, with the aid of Russian mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, this political historian developed a system for forecasting how Americans would vote in presidential elections (what is termed the “popular vote”, which may, however,, differ from the final vote of the state electors in the Electoral College).

In practice, this system  is based on 13 “Keys”, or questions formulated as propositions, based on the theory that the presidential election is mainly a referendum on the current occupant of the White House or on the party controlling the White House if the incumbent president is not standing for re-election. So, the propositions focus on subjects that are key factors in assessing the chances of success or failure of the incumbent party, by examining the political and social situation of the country, the state of the economy, foreign policy performance and the personality of the candidates. If at least five of these criteria are not met, the incumbent party will not win the election. This method has correctly predicted the results of every American presidential election, with the exception of the defeat of H. Hoover in 1932; it predicted the victory of Donald Trump in 2016 (although he only won the vote of the Electoral College, not the popular vote), and it predicted the defeat of George Bush, who did lose the popular vote but nevertheless won the election, thanks to the Electoral College. In the final analysis, it is a structural method that almost faultlessly predicts the popular vote.

With 6 unfavourable Keys out of 13, Donald Trump would not win the popular vote in 2020. In  particular, the negative Keys are the loss of seats in the House of Representatives after the mid-term elections, reflecting a downward political trend, the impeachment process against him, the economic recession of 2020 and the current wave of protests in the United States. Without the recession and the demonstrations, the Keys would have pointed to a victory. ln this sense, we can therefore deduce that current events probably represent tipping points for this year’s presidential election in the United States.

Keys / True - False / Reasons

Source : Groupama AM

 

DISCLAIMER

This document is for information purposes only.

Groupama Asset Management and its subsidiaries are not liable for any modification, distortion or forgery of this document.

Any unauthorized modification, use or distribution of all or part of this document, by whatsoever means, is prohibited.

The information contained in this publication is based on sources that we consider to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy completeness, validity or relevance.

This document was drawn up on the basis of information, projections, estimates, forecasts and hypotheses that involve a degree of subjective judgement. The analyses and conclusions express an independent opinion formed on the basis of publicly available information on a specific date and by applying a methodology specific to Groupama AM. In view of the subjective and indicative nature of these analyses, they cannot be construed to constitute a legally binding commitment or guarantee by Groupama AM or as personal financial advice.

This non-contractual document does not, under any circumstances, constitute a recommendation, request for offers, an offer to buy or sell or an arbitrage offer, and may in no case be interpreted as such.

The commercial teams of Groupama Asset Management and its subsidiaries are at your service if you wish a personal financial recommendation.

Edited by Groupama Asset Management – Headquarters : 25 rue de la ville l’Evêque, 75008 Paris – Website: www.groupama-am.com