1. Financial Markets

In the aftermath of the intervention by the United States and Israel in Iran, and considering the three scenarios that could be envisaged (a scenario of a rapid collapse of the regime with the establishment of a new government led by opposition forces; a scenario of stalemate and chaos with a generalisation of the conflict and the deployment of U.S. troops; a scenario involving a resumption of negotiations between the United States and a weakened Iran after a few days or weeks of strikes), markets appear to be pricing in a rapid resolution or a limited escalation of the conflict, judging by their relatively contained reactions this Monday, March 2, 2026, particularly as this intervention is taking place in a market that is relatively “expensive” in both bonds and equities:

• • The price of a barrel of Brent crude opened by +10% at USD 80, before easing slightly.
  • Equity markets are slightly lower, with for example -1.5% for the French CAC 40 index, -1.8% for the European Eurostoxx 50 index, and -1% for S&P 500 equity futures1
  • Ten-yearyieldsaremarginallyhigher(+3basispointsontheU.S.10-yearyield,+2basispoints on the French 10-year yield).¹

¹ Sources: Bloomberg, 02/03/2026, 11:50

Bonds markets

At this stage, the market is anticipating a short conflict, which limits market movements in an environment of constrained credit market liquidity: the “Crossover” bond index (bonds rated at the boundary between investment-grade and higher-risk credit) has widened by around +10 basis points, reaching approximately 270 basis points, while yields have risen slightly by 2–4 basis points across the U.S., French and German yield curves.

The main point of vigilance in rates markets concerns a potential impact on oil infrastructure, which could sustainably push oil and gas prices higher and rekindle inflation expectations.

Equity markets

This crisis comes against a backdrop of fragility in equity markets, particularly in the U.S. market, after three years of strong gains, amid questions about the profitability of investments in the artificial intelligence sector and their impact on the labour market. European markets show more moderate valuations but have a higher dependence on oil and global growth.

The key point of vigilance for equity markets is the duration of the conflict, which could affect global growth through higher energy prices and a significant increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit, as the cost of war is substantial (a single U.S. Tomahawk missile costs approximately USD 1.5 million).

2. Economic Impacts

To assess the economic impact, it is necessary to distinguish between two channels: the commodities channel (essentially oil prices) and the financial conditions channel:

• Oil channel: oil becomes a headwind once prices rise by USD 10 (oil at USD 80), but the impact remains marginal; oil at USD 100 would represent a headwind comparable to the First Gulf War, potentially costing 0.5 percentage points of growth in the United States and increasing inflation by a similar magnitude.
• Financial conditions channel: at this stage, there is no significant impact.

Current developments do not lead us to revise our growth, inflation or monetary policy scenarios. However, we remain highly attentive to oil price developments. A stronger rise in prices would be interpreted by central banks more as a growth risk than an inflation risk, particularly if it leads to a deterioration in financial conditions via a decline in risk assets.

Conclusion

The two short-term points of vigilance remain the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows and which remains open for the time being, and the targeting of oil infrastructure in Gulf countries (refineries). These two factors are currently not (or only marginally) priced in by markets.​​​​​​​